Press release: Climate change can alleviate livestock diseases and human-leopard conflicts

Nr. 227/2015 - 01.10.2015

German-Iranian research team describes relationships between climate, livestock diseases and human-carnivore conflicts

(pug) Human-carnivore conflicts and climate change are among the most challenging and widespread environmental issues. Conflicts between people and carnivores arise mostly because of predation of carnivores, such as big cats or wolves, on livestock and other domestic animals. Global warming affects all sides of life, but like conflicts it is most detrimental to poor local communities. The impact of climate change on conflicts has not been studied yet, but can potentially be strong by affecting the availability of wild prey or diseases of domestic animals. A recent study in villages around Golestan National Park in northern Iran describes the relationships between climate and its change, livestock diseases, and conflicts between humans and endangered Persian leopards.

“We knew that leopard predation on livestock is higher in villages where livestock is morbid because of poorer veterinary services,” says leading researcher Dr. Igor Khorozyan from the University of Göttingen. “Now we see that livestock diseases are closely related to humid conditions, and therefore the connection of climate, diseases and conflicts is quite obvious. Several climate change scenarios and modeling approaches show that the Golestan area will experience strong aridization in the 21st century, reducing the probability of diseases by about 20 percent and the probability of conflicts by over 10 percent. As Golestan is the main stronghold for the Persian leopard, it represents a good model site for finding conflict drivers and preserving this magnificent big cat”.

Livestock diseases are particularly common in humid Hyrcanian forest areas of western Golestan, being directly affected by climate continentality and precipitation characteristics. Human-leopard conflicts are also confined to the same areas of western Golestan, because diseased livestock present an easy prey for leopards. Here, the most common livestock disease is hoof infection caused by Fusobacterium necrophorum, which limits the fleeing behavior of livestock and exposes them to higher predation. Other common diseases include fascioliasis, foot-and-mouth disease, echinococcosis and tick-borne diseases.

“Aridization is a real threat to Golestan, which is one of the world’s mammal-rich areas most susceptible to droughts. Other studies also show that Golestan will suffer from higher temperatures, longer dry seasons and less water in this century”, says Göttingen University’s Dr. Matthias Waltert, senior author of the study and coordinator of the German-Iranian research team. “This threat has been aggravated by the fact that Golestan lies in the transitional zone of Hyrcanian humid forests, steppes and semi-deserts and is highly exposed to desertification coming from the east. Despite its obvious adversity, aridization will significantly reduce the chances of livestock diseases and human-leopard conflicts, as our results show”.

The study confirms that conflicts between people and big cats are particularly high in humid areas or seasons, because lush vegetation attracts grazing livestock but makes wild prey scatter around. As the main prey species of Golestan (wild boar, urial sheep and bezoar goat) are tolerant to aridization, they are expected to further reduce leopard attacks on livestock with projected climate change.

Original publication: Igor Khorozyan et. al (2015). The relationship between climate, diseases of domestic animals and human-carnivore conflicts. Basic and Applied Ecology, doi:10.1016/j.baae.2015.07.001

Contact address:

Igor Khorozyan, PhD
Alexander von Humboldt postdoctoral scientist
Workgroup on Endangered Species
J.F. Blumenbach Institute of Zoology and Anthropology
Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
Bürgerstrasse 50, Göttingen 37073, Germany
phone: +49 551 395633
email: igor.khorozyan(at)biologie.uni-goettingen.de
website: www.uni-goettingen.de/en/483588.html