6: Climate change, land use and nitrogen dynamics in rangelands/shrubs

Workpackage 6 aims to project the impacts of biophysical (climate, CO2, nitrogen) and socio-ecological factors on the provision of multiple ecosystem services and functions (e.g. livestock carrying capacity, maximum sustainable yield, trait/functional/habitat diversity, fuelwood harvesting capacity, C-storage, N-cycling) in the rangelands of Limpopo Province, using the vegetation model aDGVM2. The aDGVM2 allows to upscale from field campaigns (Workpackage 2 and 4) both in space (from sites to regional/continental scale) and in time (from historic and present to future). Model simulation runs will be designed in close collaboration with Workpackage 5. The simulation results are indispensable for an integrated multiple-risk assessment in Limpopo (Workpackage 7), and are aimed at the development of decision support guidelines. Integrated modelling studies will be conducted to develop guidelines for decision-making. Workpackage 6 includes three main work tasks: 1. model development, 2. model benchmarking and 3. upscaling in space and time combined with impact assessment accounting for biophysical, socio-ecological and socio-economic factors. These activities will allow us to answer the following key questions:

• How do ecosystem functions and ecosystem services in the Limpopo Province respond to climate change?
  
• How do multiple risks (extreme events, land use, policy change) influence future ecosystem functions and services?
  
• Does nutrient limitation mitigate or exacerbate climate change impacts on vegetation dynamics?

1st Annual Meeting 2019