The factors for success of a Conservative party – the Spanish Partido Popular

(1) Research question

Much less attention has hitherto been paid to Conservative and Christian Democratic parties than to Social Democracy or extreme right-wing parties in international party research. On the other hand, Christian Democratic and Conservative parties have had a decisive influence on policies in government in several countries in Western Europe after 1945. Moreover, they belong – mostly in consensus with Social Democracy – to the ‚founding fathers’ of the postware welfare state in Europe. The deficit in party research is even greater in the case of the so-called Third Wave societies in Southern Europe (Greece, Spanien and Portugal). Here, democratic right-wing parties faced considerable difficulties to establish within the newly founded party systems, due to the lasting heritage of right-wing dictatorships. Nevertheless, the Spanish Partido Popular offers the case of a remarkable success story. It suceeded in transforming from a post-francoist minority party in the 1970s towards the hegemonic formation in the Spanish party system in the 1990s. In 1996, the PP became a party in government on the national level and won the general elections of 2000 with an absolute majority. This made the PP somewhat exceptional on the European stage, while its center-right partners in the European Peoples’ Party (EPP) were in crisis, a phenomenon which seems to have come to an end with recent victories at the polls in several countries.
The research project asks for the factors of the success of the Partido Popular. Due to the stability of the electoral success during a longer period, on all levels of the European system (local, regional, national and European) I hold conjunctural explanation patterns to be shortfalling and rather expect structural factors as more promising to explain the party’s success. I will therefor analyse the organisation of the party and its penetration into civil society (politics level), its position on selected policies (policy level) and the competition structure of the Spanish party system (system level). An attempt will be made to weight the factors: which is more adequate in explaining success? Is it rather due to external factors or rather due to internal factors?

(2) Research program

The approach followed is a rather competition oriented one than a sociological one. Parties, although affected by their environment, are perceived as relatively independent actors who possess the capacity to act strategically within certain borders. Particularly in the case of post-authoritarian societies in Southern Europe, with newly emerged party systems without considerable continuities to former democratic systems, sociological approaches of explanations are little fruitful. The responsiveness of parties to their environment, on the contrary, has to be valued rather high. Competition oriented parties are – according to Harmel and Janda – vote and office maximizing actors, a factor which makes them distinct from other societal actors and movements. Departing from a rather large freedom of action on behalf of the parties and their ability for strategic direction, the possible independent variables selected explaining the success of the PP are of a very ‚political’ nature in a narrow sense (see above).
The methodological approach will be a qualitative one. Depending on the variables examined, secondary literature, documents and other sources will be used. In order to get a deeper insight into the party’s organisation and to gather additional information, the method of expert interviews will be employed (especially with members of the party central office).
In order to be able to weight the independent variables, a comparison with a second party seems useful. In my project, the Portuguese CDS/PP will be used as a differing case. Portugal offers the advantage, that – according to the ‚area approach’ (Lijphart), many contextual variables can be maintained constant. Die selection of right-wing parties in Spain and Portugal applies the ‚comparable case strategy’ in homogenous geographic areas, as contextual factors are similar and the ‚outcome’ could not be more different: while the Spanish PP has developed from a marginal party to the hegemonic formation in the party system, the Portuguese PP is still a marginal party with 10% of the vote, facing very similar conditions at the beginning of democracy. The stable contextual factors which recommend the comparison are the following: a) both Spain and Portugal belong to the Third Wave countries in Southern Europe with the experience of right-wing dictatorships; b) both countries share a similar sociocultural background (language, religion); c) both countries show a similar institutional framework (government, electoral system); d) on the party system level, both parties started from a similar position in moderately fragmented four party system; e) both parties faced similar problems of legitimacy as parties with links to the former regime.

(3) Reference to the European Social Model

Parties are an essential part and carriers of a European Social Model insofar as they act as brokers between civil society and the political system. The current debate about party change and party system change, the debate about a possible change of parties from mass member organisation towards „bonapartised“ parties (Lösche, 1998) usually affects the traditional parties in the established democracies in Western Europe. It thereby does not leave untouched the basis of the European Social Model. With the accession of the Third Wave democracies to the European Community in the mid-1980s, however, new actors have entered the European stage, more will follow with the Eastern enlargement of the EU in the years to come. The EU enlarges continuously and is submitted to change: new models are found at the periphery of the Community. A closer examination of parties in post-authoritarian societies makes sense in two dimensions. On the politics level, it can provide fruitful insight into developments in the debate on „erosion“ of established models and carriers and of possible innovations on behalf of these new actors. The Spanish Partido Popular, in its particular organizational structure, might reflect a Southern European party type that possibly anticipates the future structure of mass parties in established democracies in Western Europe.
On the policy level, the investigation on the Partido Popular might shed light on programmatic changes, that become predominant in the established center-right parties and the EPP as a whole. This is especially relevant regarding the developments in the EPP, with the ideological boundaries between Christian Democrats and Conservatives becoming increasingly blurred and new parties like the PP or Forza Italia seem to gain a protagonism vis-à-vis the traditional Christian Democratic parties.
The debate on the future of Social Democracy, on Third Ways in Europe and the impact of the latter on other Social Democratic parties has beyond any doubt been interesting and revealing. But this debate ought to be complemented by a second debate about a possible re-orientation of the center-right parties in Europe and the inputs provided on behalf of the Spanish PP for the second political family.